Mexico | Trump 2.0 Mass Deportation: A Low Probability Event

Summary

On the first day of the Trump 2.0 administration, at least 7 executive orders or proclamations were issued regarding immigration issues, highlighting the importance of this issue for his government.

Key points

• Key points:
• During President Trump's first administration (2017-2020) an average of 300,000 immigrants were removed per year, a figure lower than that observed during both President Obama's administrations: 400,000 per year in his first administration and 375,000 in the second.
• It is estimated that in the United States, there are about 10 million undocumented workers, 6% of the workforce. A program of mass deportations (millions of people) in an economy in which the unemployment rate is at its natural or equilibrium level, would result in an economic recession and a permanent increase in the inflation rate.
• It is estimated that there are just over 12 million Mexican immigrants in the United States, of which 4.1 million are undocumented. Of this group, 430,000 have the protection to reside and work in the United States thanks to Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA).
• During President Trump's first administration, remittances to Mexico increased by more than 50% in dollars. The new Trump administration’s effect on the flow of remittances to Mexico in the coming years is likely to be very little. The main factor driving migration and remittances is the U.S. economy, not immigration policy.
• President Trump will reinstate the "Remain in Mexico" program, which ordered more than 81,000 migrants to remain in Mexico during their asylum proceedings in the United States between 2019 and 2022. Honduras, Guatemala, Cuba, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Ecuador, and Venezuela were the main countries of origin.

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