Mexico | Trade deficit reflects more economic dynamism in 1Q24 vs. 4Q23

Summary

The trade balance reversed its behavior of the end of last year and posted a deficit in the first quarter of 2024. Given the stylized fact that the trade balance shows a countercyclical behavior, this deficit reflects that the Mexican economy reassumed its growth path at the beginning of the year.

Key points

• Key points:
• We anticipate a trade balance with a lower deficit in 2024 in relation to last year’s figure (0.4% of GDP) given our expectation for economic growth of 2.0% in 2024 vs. 3.2% in 2023.
• The current account deficit in the first quarter of 2024 was lower than the corresponding figure for the same period of 2023 mainly due to the lower deficit in the balance on oil-related goods.
• Net foreign direct investment posted a decrease of 1.3% YoY in the first quarter of 2024 when comparing preliminary figures.

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