Mexico | Tax revenue without excise taxes on fuels was significantly overestimated

Summary

Public revenue in 2022 was MXN 422,463 million (1.5% of GDP) above budget due to higher oil-related income and to a lesser extent the performance of non-tax revenue.

Key points

• Key points:
• Subsidies to fuel prices implied a loss of revenue collection from excise taxes on fuels of around MXN 397,298 million (1.4% of GDP). Oil-related income was MXN 394,509 million (1.4% of GDP) above budget, which almost compensated the aforementioned tax revenue loss.
• Even though the Ministry of Finance was able to forecast the last two figures with some degree of accuracy, tax revenue without excise taxes on fuels was MXN 197,058 million (0.7% of GDP) below the latest estimation given in the Public Finance Report corresponding to the third quarter of 2022.
• Due to this overestimation, public revenue was MXN 137,900 million (0.5% of GDP) lower-than-expected by the Ministry of Finance.

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