Mexico | Relative resilience of private spending in December

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator (BDCI) grew 1.0% MaM in December, its fifth consecutive growth since August 2024

Key points

• Key points:
• Point-of-sale consumption growth was driven by higher spending on goods, with a 2.0% MoM during the period; spending on services fell (-)0.2% MaM, the first drop since July of last year.
• We estimate the relative resilience shown by point-of-sale terminal spending is associated, among other factors, with the performance that the real wage bill has shown to date; according to IMSS data, real wage bill growth averaged 6.9% in 2024 (YoY), 1.5 pp above the pre-pandemic period (2019).
• Regarding spending on goods, food consumption grew 0.1% MaM, with a year-on-year variation of 11.9% (the highest since May 2024); considering spending on services, segments linked to tourism showed a moderate performance (restaurants 2.4% MaM, hotels 1.6% MaM).
• Although we anticipate that consumption will continue to show relative resilience in the coming months, other segments of economic activity (particularly industry) will continue to show weakness throughout the year. Under this scenario, we maintain our growth estimate at 1.2% for 2024 and 1.0% for this year, with a downward bias given the high level of uncertainty.

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