Mexico | Reflections on the 2023 fiscal package

Summary

Last week the Ministry of Finance presented to the Chamber of Deputies the fiscal package for the coming year. The assumptions on which this package was designed appear to be very optimistic, the growth forecast of 3% for 2023 is very high compared to that of private analysts or multilateral organizations.

Key points

• Key points:
• I also find it optimistic to assume that interest rates will reach 9.5% by the end of this year and that they will drop to 8.5% by the end of 2023.
• I believe that at the end of 2022 the rates will reach 10% and that next year they will close at 9%.
• The higher the interest rate turns out to be, the greater the outlays for debt service and the greater the deficit.
• Due to the above, it seems that it is very feasible that public revenues in 2023 will be lower than estimated.

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