Mexico Real Estate Outlook. First semester 2024

Summary

At the end of 2023 we find opposite results in the Real Estate market. Construction presents historical results, growth rates well above the average in different indicators. The housing market is contracting with figures as of November 2023. In both cases, we estimate that in 2024 both sectors will reverse the trends

Key points

• Key points:
• Construction increased 15.6% in 2023, driven by civil works.
• Construction GDP reached 1.6 trillion pesos, its historical maximum. At least since 1993, a similar amount had not been recorded in constant 2018 pesos.
• The housing market contracted during 2023, with a decrease of 0.9% in the number of loans and a 5.4% decrease in the mortgage amount. Commercial banks maintain their preponderance with 58% of the total mortgage amount originated.
• The accelerated appreciation of housing in Mexico in recent years is highly correlated with construction costs, from 2005 to 2023 shows an average appreciation rate of 7.2% annually and construction costs increased 5.7% annually in the same period.
• The value of civil works in Quintana Roo and Campeche grew 400% and 191%, respectively; Both entities are the ones that grew the most in 2023.

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