Mexico | Pemex contributes to a public spending above budget

Summary

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 49.3% of GDP at the end of the third quarter. We anticipate that this balance will be 50.8% by year-end.

Key points

• Key points:
• Taking into account our GDP growth forecast of 1.0% for 2025 and debt servicing costs of 3.4% of GDP, our calculations show that the primary surplus would have to be 1.3% of GDP (a public deficit of 2.1% of GDP) to keep the HBPSBR at 50.8% by the end of 2025.
• In our view, this type of fiscal consolidation could imply a significant downside risk to economic growth and the economic package to be released on November 15 should contain a credible and gradual fiscal consolidation plan that contributes to the stability of the HBPSBR (% of GDP) in the coming years.

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