Mexico | Non-tax revenue, IMSS, ISSSTE and CFE support public income in the first semester

Summary

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 47.2% of GDP at the end of the first semester. We anticipate that this balance will be 50.8% by year-end.

Key points

• Key points:
• Nevertheless, as of 2025 public deficits around 2.5% of GDP will be necessary to keep this public debt-to-GDP ratio stable.
• According to what was announced by the Finance Minister several weeks ago, next year’s fiscal consolidation will take the public deficit to levels around 3.0% vs. 5.0% of GDP in 2024 (a 35-year high).
• This fiscal consolidation would imply a HBPSBR of 51.3% of GDP by the end of 2025. This level would not pose a problem either to public debt sustainability or sovereign credit ratings.

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