Mexico | Moderate Consumption Growth in March

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported 1.7% growth in March (MoM), following the zero growth recorded the previous month. By component, both spending on goods and services registered positive variations (goods 1.5%, services 2.4%).

Key points

• Key points:
• The growth in private consumption in March is a positive sign for economic activity in 1Q25, a quarter that has already seen declines in industrial activity.
• Regarding consumption by type of establishment, online spending continues to gain ground, with a monthly variation of 3.1% in March and a year-over-year variation of 148.8% (vs. 51.9% on average during 2024).
• Regarding gasoline spending (as a proxy for mobility), it fell (-)2.4% MoM in March (the second consecutive drop so far this year), with a year-over-year change of 3.0% (vs. 7.9% on average for 2024).
• Among the factors that could prevent further spending growth for the remainder of the year are the prolonged uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and the impact on employment that could result from production adjustments if the new tariffs are extended into the medium term.

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