Mexico | Manufacturing slowed down in November; less resilience going forward

Summary

The BBVA Manufacturing Multidimensional Indicator grew 4.2% in November (YoY), 4.2 pp below the previous month; the figure represents the lowest since March 2022 and marks a turning point after the recovery period that the sector showed in the first three quarters of the year.

Key points

• Key points:
• The November yearly variation suggest the resilience of the manufacturing sector may be coming to an end, as demand slows, in a context of higher interest rates and higher financing costs.
• In October, the automotive sector fell (-)0.3% MoM, the second consecutive drop in 2H22, which indicates a lower level of production after its recovery during the first three quarters of the year.
• In the US, the ISM indicator of new export orders has been in contraction territory for four consecutive months since August, while the new orders component has registered levels below 50 since September.
• Going forward, we estimate that the higher interest rates will continue to negatively affect the dynamism of manufacturing, with a greater effect towards 2023.

Geographies

Topics

Tags