Mexico | Lower spending on services in June; consumption grew 0.1% MaM

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator grew of 0.1% MaM in June, after growing more than 2.0% the previous month (with real figures adjusted for seasonality); by components, the services segment fell (-)1.2%, while spending on goods grew 0.4%.

Key points

• Key points:
• The slowdown in the spending on services is in line with the deceleration of the tertiary sector that has been recorded since March, as pointed by the most recent data from the IGAE, which reports an average fall in this segment of (-)0.3% MaM during the months of March-April.
• The loss of dynamism in retail sales also coincides with the lower growth that the real wage bill has begun to register, as the deceleration in the industry materializes in lower job creation in the sector.
• Regarding consumption by type of establishment, spending in physical stores stagnated during the period (0.0%), while consumption in online establishments fell (-)1.5%.
• We estimate the lower employment growth in the industrial sector, in a context of weak external demand and high interest rates, will trigger a downtrend in consumption in the following months (partially offset by the growth of real wages).

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