Mexico | GDP grows 6.1% at an annualized rate in 2Q21 with a gloomy outlook in June

Summary

According to preliminary data from INEGI, economic activity grew 1.5% QoQ in 2Q21, which represents a downward bias on our growth forecast for this year (current 6.3%)

Key points

• Key points:
• The tertiary sector grew 2.1% QoQ 2Q21, driven by the further opening of the economy and increased mobility observed in recent months
• The industrial sector grew 0.4% QoQ, with a manufacturing sector affected by the extension of bottlenecks in the US.
• Growth in 2Q21 (1.5% QoQ) reflects a fall in June IGAE close to (-)2.0% MoM
• June data point towards a slowdown in 2H21; the boost for 2021 annual growth comes from the first half of the year
• The risk from the rise in Delta variant cases persists; higher effects on services if partial economic lockdown crystalizes ahead

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