Mexico | Formal employment with strengths in 2022, but the future is uncertain

Summary

Growth expectations and the macroeconomic environment for 2023 set a less encouraging scenario for job creation in 2023. We expect 527K new jobs to be created by the end of the year, equivalent to a year-on-year growth rate of 2.5%.

Key points

• Key points:
• Formal employment creation closes in 753K, the third highest since 1998.
• Job creation is insufficient to fully overcome the negative impact caused by the pandemic, and there is currently a gap of 1.4 million formal jobs versus the pre-pandemic trend level.
• Seven out of ten jobs are created in the manufacturing industry, services sector, and commerce
• Mexico City lags in employment recovery: it is 1.5% below the pre-pandemic trend. Baja California (10.9%) and Nuevo Leon (7.1%) highlight as the states with the best recovery.
• Real wages resilient inflation shocks. The wage negotiations and increases in the minimum wage help to reduce the negative impact on the purchasing power of workers.

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