Mexico | Economic package 2021 based on relatively optimistic GDP and income assumptions

Summary

The economic package reinforces the signal of fiscal discipline by establishing a primary balance of 0% of GDP. It is positive that the federal government has proposed that goal instead of the deficit of 0.6% of GDP that it had suggested in Pre-Criteria for 2021.

Key points

• Key points:
• The assumptions of the economic package are relatively optimistic on two fronts: i) an economic growth 1.2 percentage points above the consensus of analysts, and ii) an oil production of 1.86 million barrels per day
• For this reason, it would be desirable that, once the economic growth figures for the first quarter of 2021 are available, adjustments be made to meet fiscal goals, if necessary

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