Mexico Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2021
Published on Wednesday, July 21, 2021 | Updated on Wednesday, July 28, 2021
Mexico Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2021
We upwardly revised the 2021 GDP growth forecast to 6.3% from 4.7%. Banxico will continue increasing the reference rate for the rest of the year unless inflation drops more-than-expected.
Key points
- Key points:
- More dynamism of consumption amid higher mobility and economic reopening. Investment recovery higher-than-expected in 1Q21, but still incomplete
- For 2022 we upwardly revised the GDP growth forecast to 3.0% from 2.8%, driven by an improved investment outlook
- Slow formal employment growth in the first half of the year. Nevertheless, we expect it to gain momentum in 2H21 on the economic reopening and higher expected GDP growth
- We expect Banxico to hike rates in the next three monetary policy meetings with above-5.0% headline inflation and above-4.0% core inflation for the rest of the year
Documents to download
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Report (EPUB)
Situacion-Mexico-3Q21-.epub English July 28, 2021Report (EPUB)
Situacion-Mexico-3T21.epub Spanish July 23, 2021Report (PDF)
Situacion_Mexico3T21.pdf Spanish July 23, 2021Authors
- Javier AmadorBBVA Research - Principal Economist
- David Cervantes ArenillasBBVA Research - Senior Economist
- Iván FernándezBBVA Research - Senior Economist
- Arnulfo RodríguezBBVA Research - Principal Economist
- Saide Aránzazu SalazarBBVA Research - Principal Economist
- Carlos SerranoBBVA Research - Chief Economist
Geographies
- Geography Tags
- Mexico
Topics
- Topic Tags
- Macroeconomic Analysis
Tags
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