Mexico | Despite uncertainty, consumption grows annually and remains stable in February

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported zero growth (0.0% MoM) in February; year-on-year (YoY) spending on point-of-sale terminals grew 11.1%, bringing the average for the first two months of the year to 13.0% (vs. 9.9% on average for 2024).

Key points

• Key points:
• The stagnation in private spending is materializing in a period of high uncertainty regarding US trade policy (with consumer confidence on a downward trend since December), in addition to the slowdown in real wages.
• By component, total spending on services fell (-)1.7% MoM, while spending on goods grew 0.9% during the period; tourism-related segments reported mixed performances (spending on restaurants grew 2.0% MoM, while spending on hotels fell (-)0.7% MoM).
• Regarding consumption by type of establishment, online spending shows signs of improvement, with 4.2% MoM growth in February and a year-on-year change of 141.7% (vs. 51.8% on average during 2024).
• We believe that private consumption will continue to contribute to economic growth this year, albeit on a smaller scale than in 2024; among the factors that will prevent greater dynamism in private spending are the highly uncertain environment resulting from the new tariff policy in the U.S. and job losses in various industrial sectors, especially construction and manufacturing.

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