Mexico | Consumption shows lower growth in September; weakness in services

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported growth of 1.5% MoM in September, 0.7 pp below the figure recorded in August

Key points

• Key points:
• Considering the September data, private spending reports an average year-on-year growth of 9.8% during the first nine months of the year, 1.8 pp below the figure observed in the same period of the previous year.
• We estimate private spending will continue to show slow dynamism in the second half of the year, given the deceleration in the real wage bill due to sluggish employment growth in the industrial sector.
• Regarding consumption by type of establishment, spending in online stores grew 9.5% MoM in September, while purchases in physical establishments showed a monthly variation of 1.0% during the same period.
• As a result of the slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, and the expectation of low growth for the second half, we estimate that GDP will register an annual variation of 1.2% for 2024; in 2025, GDP would grow 1.0%, given the prolonged weakness of domestic demand.

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