Mexico | Consumption rebounds in June with the Hot Sale

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator grew 6.8% MaM in June, with real seasonally adjusted figures, after the contraction in May

Key points

• Key points:
• Total spending was boosted by the goods segment, which grew 9.2% MaM, amid the week of discounts in the sixth month of the year.
• With June data, private spending in point-of-sale terminals, grew 4.6% QoQ in 2Q23 (vs 6.6% the previous quarter).
• Regarding spending by type of establishment, online consumption grew 22.7%, its highest variation since its rebound in May 2020; sales in physical stores grew 6.2%.
• We anticipate the resilience of consumption will continue into 2H23, although probably with less momentum, as other segments of the economy suffer the slowdown in external demand.
• We keep our growth estimate for 2023 at 2.4%, given the positive performance of 1H23; we estimate GDP growth of 1.8% for 2024 (because of the drag effect of a weaker 2H23) as the demand for durable goods in the US slows down.

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