Mexico | Consumption grew 0.5% in October, with dynamism in the goods segment

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator (BBVA BDCI) grew 0.5% MaM in October, with real figures adjusted for seasonality

Key points

• Key points:
• We anticipate consumption will continue to show dynamism going forward given the gains in real wages and real wage bill (+7.2%, and +11.6% from June 2022, respectively), the trend towards lower saving rate, and the recovery of consumer credit.
• By components, spending on goods increased 1.6%, with food consumption growing 0.6%; spending on services decreased (-)1.1%, with a contraction in restaurants (-2.5%), hotels (-4.6%), and entertainment services (-11.9%).
• Regarding spending by type of establishment, online consumption grew 4.2%, while consumption in physical establishments increased 0.1%; with these figures, online consumption exceeds the level recorded in December of last year by 25.5%, while spending in physical establishments exceeds it by 8.5%.
• We anticipate private consumption will extend its resilience, given the dynamism of labor income and employment, with a lower tendency to save; the good performance of domestic demand in 3Q23 and the better outlook for 4Q23 biases our growth estimate for 2023 upwards, with a positive base effect on 2024.

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