Mexico | Consumption fell in July after the Hot Sale

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator (BDCI) reported a (-)3.8% MaM drop in July, with real seasonally adjusted figures

Key points

• Key points:
• The drop in spending could reflect the change in the seasonal effect of the series, after unusual growth for a month of June (as a result of the Hot Sale materializing in the sixth month of the year, for the first time since its launch).
• In aggregate terms, consumption continues to show a positive evolution; from January to July of this year (accumulated) private spending has registered a growth of 11.8% with respect to the same period of the previous year.
• By components, the goods segment reported a monthly variation of (-)3.9%, while the services segment fell (-)3.6%. With the data for July, the goods component is 8.7% above its December 2022 level, while the services component is 13.1% above that same threshold.
• We anticipate that consumption will show a positive evolution going forward driven by gains in real wages and employment (with the real wage bill registering a level 10.3% above that observed in June 2022).

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