Macroeconomic effects of lower oil prices

Summary

The drop in oil prices could increase global growth by 0.4 pp in 2015-16. For advanced economies we expect a positive effect on growth in the US (0.3pp) and Europe (0.4pp), with a higher effect on Spain (0.7pp). For emerging countries, we expect no effect on Chinese growth as the positive impact (around +0.3 pp in 2015-16) will reduce the need for stimulus policies with side effects in terms of financial vulnerabilities. In Latin America, there will be a positive impact on Chile, Peru and Argentina, and a negative effect in Colombia. But the biggest economies in the region (Mexico and Brazil) will see a negative effect. Note that, in any case, these results just include the effect of lower expected oil prices and associated policy responses. The forthcoming update on our macro forecasts would need to include also other relevant shocks seen since October.

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