Global | What are the most likely long term climate scenarios? Not the most ambitious

Summary

Climate scenarios can be clustered by temperature goals and ranked by the feasibility of the policies to achieve them. Under current commitments, scenarios projecting a 2.3°C–3.0°C temperature increase are the most plausible; more ambitious targets require policy shifts -and breakthrough innovation- that are less likely.

Key points

• Key points:
• Climate scenarios are grouped into three clusters—2.3°C–3.0°C (Business as Usual), Well Below 2°C (Paris Aligned), and 1.5°C or Below (Net Zero)—based on their targeted temperature outcomes, enabling a comparative evaluation of their feasibility and alignment with current trends and policies.
• Achieving more ambitious scenarios requires rapid innovation, enhanced policy frameworks, and international coordination, which are not currently evident at the required scale.
• (A naif exercise) The likelihood of achieving a net-zero emissions pathway by mid-century is estimated below 15% without a significant leap in emissions intensity reduction trends driven by innovation and aggressive policy implementation.

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