Global | Weaker global momentum extends into 2H19 driven by China and the EZ

Summary

Global growth slowed markedly in 2Q19, with weakening signs stemming from China and the EZ. Increasing trade tensions and higher uncertainty are weighing on trade and the industrial sector, but are also reflected in investment and domestic demand. Weaker momentum extends into 3Q19.

Key points

• Key points:
• Hard data disappointed up to July and leading confidence indicators in 3Q19 point to a gloomier outlook in coming quarters
• Both headline and core inflation remain broadly steady across countries, with some signs of moderation in emerging economies and low levels in developed countries, especially in Europe. The recent spike in oil prices seems to be transitory with limited effect on consumer prices
• Against this backdrop, central banks eased monetary measures in both developed and emerging countries, while the debate on stronger fiscal stimulus is gaining traction in some regions

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