Global | The old anomaly of inflation

Summary

In early 2022, we face a global economic scenario with an eye still on the pandemic, but with a return to macroeconomic management issues that seemed forgotten for decades—high inflation and the tapering of monetary stimulus.

Key points

• Key points:
• Omicron will slow down the recovery somewhat and will entail lower growth rates in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of this year.
• Disruption and bottlenecks in global supply chains are taking longer than expected to resolve, in large part due to the ongoing pandemic.
• The global economy could grow by 4.4% this year and 3.8% next year, with figures well above potential growth in both the United States and the Eurozone. The structural moderation process is set to continue in China.
• Beyond growth, the rebound in inflation, which is proving persistent, and the consequent monetary policy response, are the main source of risk for this year and the central focus of macroeconomic management.

Geographies

Topics

Tags