Global | Slow landing of activity and inflation

Summary

The intensity of political events, in a year plagued by key elections in many regions of the world, as well as two ongoing armed conflicts, contrast with the resilience of the global economy.

Key points

• Key points:
• The good performance of the services sector and the effects of fiscal policy measures in recent years have offset interest rate hikes from mid-2022.
• Global growth is set to be relatively weak over the next two quarters, with some slowdown in the U.S. and a sluggish recovery in the eurozone, which started to grow at the beginning of this year after five quarters of stagnation.
• Overall, global GDP growth is expected to be 3.1% this year, following 3.2% in 2023, highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy (with a forecast of 2.2%), well above Europe despite the improvement (0.7%), and a structural slowdown in China. By 2025, a certain Global recovery is expected to take hold, up to 3.3%.
• However, the economic focus is on whether the disinflation process is complete, and to what extent it may allow central banks to reduce interest rates in restrictive areas to more neutral levels.

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