Global | Recovery in an uncertain environment

The global economy is heading into a year full of political and geopolitical uncertainties that may have a considerable impact on confidence and economic policies.

Key points

• Key points:
• On top of armed conflicts, there are also key elections in much of the world, including in the United States and the European Union. This could lead to a world that is more polarized, less globalized and even more protective of trade and immigration.
• However, it's not all doom and gloom in the global economic outlook. The budding signs of improvement in U.S. productivity and the U.S. economy's high resilience to the abrupt rise in interest rates have been surprising. We have revised U.S. economic growth for this year upward to 1.9%.
• The outlook is less positive in the other two major areas of the G3. China continues its structural slowdown and will grow at around 4.6%, slightly below official targets. As for the eurozone, we continue to believe that it will gradually recover this year.
• The economic policy debate continues to focus on the timing and pace of easing interest rates in the United States and Europe, which is likely to begin in mid-year thanks to the (still incomplete) normalization of inflation. In any case, the world we are heading for will be one of higher interest rates.

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