Global | Overview of 2021: inflation — the unexpected guest

Summary

The global economy beat forecasts in 2021, with a more positive than expected first half to the year — driven by the restart in activity and the rollout of vaccinations. However, the second six months were more moderate, affected by supply chain disruptions and rising inflation.

Key points

• Key points:
• A strong global recovery was forecast at the start of 2021, as a result of mass vaccination programs, the continued support of monetary and fiscal policy, and a reduction in financial risks.
• What was not predicted was the appearance of inflation — or at least not the type of inflation that we have seen since last spring.
• Economic growth in 2021 will finally settle around 5.6% in the US and 5.1% in the eurozone, well above the level forecast at the start of the year.
• The recovery is expected to continue in 2022, though two big doubts remain: the severity of the latest wave of the pandemic and its economic impact; and how soon inflation begins to slow down.

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