Global | No time for empty promises

Summary

Climate change is gaining prominence in economic forums. At the biannual meeting in Washington of the IMF and the World Bank, climate issues were no longer relegated to the “risk” or “future challenges” sections of conference papers. Also on the horizon is the COP26 summit in Glasgow in November.

Key points

• Key points:
• In its recent report on countries’ voluntary commitments under the Paris Agreement, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) concluded that the gap between GHG emission reduction pledges and what is really needed to curb global warming remains wide.
• The targeted temperature rise ceiling of 1.5°C requires emissions to fall from the 2010 level by about 45% by 2030, and to reach net zero by mid-century.
• The way is to decouple growth and emissions. The feasibility of this option is analyzed in a recent paper by BBVA Research ("How likely are decarbonization targets? A data-driven approach").
• One of the keys to achieving structural changes in the relationship between growth and emissions is for policies to be global in scope, yet this has not been the case so far despite the nature of the climate challenge.
• Determined support for the climate transition in developing countries is necessary to ensure efficiency and fairness.

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