Global | Inflation and Bottlenecks. October 2022

Summary

Headline inflation in the US appears to have peaked in June but hit a new high in the Euro Area last month. Core inflation continued to reach new highs. The spread of high inflation to a larger range of goods has stabilized, although it still at high levels. Our supply bottlenecks indicator eased further last month.

Key points

• Key points:
• Sequentially, headline inflation picked up marginally in the US; both headline and core inflation firmed up visibly in the Euro Area.
• Energy costs moderated further in the US, but lower than in the previous two months. In emerging markets, Colombia and Mexico saw notable rise in core inflation
• Analysts’ median long-term inflation expectations have moved higher while market based inflation expectations for the US and the Euro Area suggest moderation to near 3% levels
• Our supply bottlenecks indicator suggest strains have continued to ease due to weaker consumption, although stress levels are still high in the Euro Area
• Congestion at the North Sea port in Europe persits, while traffic at Russian ports suggests that the country turned to Asia to offset embargo

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