Global | Inflation and Bottlenecks November 2023

Summary

Inflation pressure continued easing across the board, although core CPI remains high. Bottleneck indicators signal absence of disruptions, although some container freights have rebounded, reflecting the problems in the Red Sea.

Key points

• Key points:
• In the US, November headline inflation resumed its slow path slightly. The latest available PCE inflation data (Nov 23) moderated to 2.6%, and the core PCE to 3.2%.
• Eurozone inflation declined significantly again in November. China’s inflation environment remained deflationary.
• Inflation synchronicity indicators show around 50% of items in the CPI basket without price increases or falls.
• Consumer's inflation expectations have increased in both the United States and the eurozone while those implicit in the market have fallen in December.
• Our supply bottlenecks indicators suggest slack in the manufacturing sector in both US and eurozone.

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