Global | Inflation and Bottlenecks. March 2023

Summary

Inflation pressures ease further, albeit with still-high persistance particularly in Euro Area. The relief in supply chain disruptions continues.

Key points

• Key points:
• In March, headline inflation extended its moderating trend in US and Euro Area, driven mainly by energy prices
• US March headline inflation fell to 5% YoY, the lowest in nearly two years. Housing services inflation remained elevated but is expected to continue moderating in the coming months.
• Inflation appears to be cooling in the US and Europe, as shown by synchronicity and persistence indicators. However, some items still reflect high inflation with frequent upward adjustments.
• Supply disruptions eased in Europe during March, particularly with regards to equipment shortages while our bottlenecks indicator for the US remained low, suggesting lackluster manufacturing activity.

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