Global | Inflation and Bottlenecks Chartbook. May 2023

Headline inflation intensified its downward trend in most countries in May, while core inflation seems to have left the peak behind, but remains high. Supply disruptions are close to normalized levels but continue to soften.

Key points

• Key points:
• US inflation maintained the downward trend in May, to 4%YoY, dragged by gasoline prices However, core inflation showed only a mild drop to 5.3%YoY.
• Euro Area both core and headline inflation declined more than expected in May (headline 6.1% YoY; core 5.3% YoY). Services inflation eased markedly in sequential terms.
• The synchronicity and persistence indicators showed a slight improvement.
• Consumer long-term inflation expectations (US 3%YoY; Euro Area 4%YoY) remain well above both central banks’ targets and market-based long-term inflation expectations.
• Our supply bottlenecks indicator continues soften in the Euro Area. In the US, the indicator is below normalized levels.

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