Global | Inflation and Bottlenecks Chartbook. February 2024

Inflation moderated less than expected in the first two months of ‘24 constrained by the modest decline in services. Our supply bottlenecks indicators inched up in February 2024 but remain at very low levels.

Key points

• Key points:
• US headline inflation ticked up in February (to 3.2% y/y from 3.1%), but core inflation edged down (to 3.8% y/y from 3.9%). Services prices continued declining slowly but core goods increased for the first time since mid-2023.
• Preliminary Eurozone inflation moderated slightly less than expected in February 2024 (to 2.6% y/y from 2.8%), while Core CPI eased in line with expectations, with services moderating only slightly.
• The US consumers’ inflation expectations and market-based inflation expectations remain well above Fed’s target, while professional forecasters are more confident that the inflation will reach the target. In the EZ main agents expect the inflation to reach the target.
• Disruption in the Red Sea maritime routes continued. However, container freight costs inched down.
• Mild spillover effects from current disruptions and higher transport costs are evident in manufacturing.

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