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    Published on Friday, April 4, 2025

    Global | Geoeconomic Fragmentation, a Vulnerability for the Climate Transition

    Summary

    The geoeconomic fragmentation triggered by geopolitical concerns makes climate transitions more vulnerable, for example in the EU, which depends on politically distant suppliers of decarbonization inputs, or in emerging economies, which rely on external flows of sustainable finance.

    Key points

    • Key points:
    • Geoeconomic fragmentation, driven by geopolitical tensions, is increasing restrictive trade measures, including those affecting renewables.
    • The EU’s reliance on politically distant suppliers for critical inputs (e.g., rare earths, electric batteries) makes it particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions and heightens decarbonization risks.
    • Fragmentation also impairs the allocation of sustainable finance, hindering cross-border investment flows crucial for climate transitions, especially in emerging economies.

    Geographies

    Authors

    Joxe Mari Barrutiabengoa BBVA Research - Senior Economist
    Julián Cubero BBVA Research - Lead Economist
    Laura Martínez Gálvez BBVA Research - Economist
    Pilar Más Rodríguez BBVA Research - Principal Economist
    Rafael Ortiz Durán BBVA Research - Economist

    Documents and files

    Report (PDF)

    Geoeconomic Fragmentation, a Vulnerability for the Climate Transition

    English - April 4, 2025

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