Global GDP: Unchanged growth estimation, higher financial tensions are not depressing global confidence

The BBVA GAIN update in January has yielded no particularly strong revisions of global activity, as most of the monitored variables (with the exception of financial stress) have experienced no significant shift with respect to the information available in December. The figure for global growth in 2014Q3 remains definitely anchored to a quarterly value of 0.80%, in line with nowcasts from the previous months, while the forecast for Q4 also consolidates at 0.8% waiting for a few remaining countries to publish National Accounts data for the end of last year. All in all, the latest information is a sign of solid growth at an approximate level of 3% YoY in 2014 and suggests that the protracted path of recovery is to be continued in 2015, despite recent geopolitical and financial events that shall be taken under consideration in our next update.

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