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    Published on Monday, August 7, 2023

    Global | GDP and global warming

    Summary

    The earth's temperature records of recent years far exceed the historical baseline averages. It is beyond all doubt that the main reason for the upward trend in global temperatures is the highest level of concentration of carbon in the atmosphere caused by economic activity.

    Key points

    • Key points:
    • But this increase in temperature, in addition to affecting the health and well-being of the population, also affects the economic activity in a generalized manner, albeit with differences between countries, sectors and income levels of the population.
    • One of the most affected sectors is agriculture, as both temperature and rainfall are determining factors in its output.
    • Another sector is the construction industry and, in general, all those activities that are more exposed to outdoor temperatures. The increasingly frequent heat waves reduce the productivity of workers, decrease the intensity of the work performed and their cognitive performance.
    • Even with the uncertainty about the magnitude of the long-term effects, the available evidence supports the design and effective implementation of sustained climate mitigation (emission reduction) policies.
    • However, in addition to adapting to higher temperatures, given the inertia of the effects of the gasses already accumulated in the atmosphere, global warming will almost certainly continue in the coming decades, regardless of the mitigation policies implemented.

    Geographies

    Authors

    Julián Cubero BBVA Research - Lead Economist
    Lucía Martín BBVA Research

    Documents and files

    Press article (PDF)

    JJulian_Cubero_Lucia_Martin_PIB_y_calentamiento_global_ElPais_WB.pdf

    Spanish - August 7, 2023

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