Global | Forecasts and upside risks

Summary

Despite the negative news stories related to the difficulties surrounding vaccine approvals, the third and fourth waves of the pandemic, and the sense of fatigue we are feeling as a society, the global economic landscape is actually improving.

Key points

• Key points:
• We estimate that the global economy could grow by almost 6% in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022, an improvement of more than half a point in both years.
• The main factors aiding this recovery are the marked rebound effect after a year of GDP collapse, the reduced impact of the new waves on activity, the pace of vaccination efforts, the accumulation of savings by many consumers over the past year, and, above all, economic policies.
• Successive stimulus packages approved so far in 2021 in the United States amount to at least 13% of GDP, and a new infrastructure bill is in the works, which, although offset by higher taxes, is likely to provide additional stimulus, with a global impact.
• Moreover, central banks are doing a good job of controlling fears of higher inflation, which have been reflected in long-term interest rate rises. But there is also a clear risk that these stimuli will trigger sudden imbalances in financial and real variables.

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