Global Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2014

Summary

The confidence and financial volatility indicators are consistent with a gradual improvement in activity, which will take global growth to 3.3% in 2014, 30bp more than in 2013. Global growth will continue overall, with improvements in advanced economies, the USA and the eurozone, while we expect a soft landing for China’s economy. Global growth will accelerate to around 3.8% in 2015, supported by favourable financing conditions and demand-side economic policies. There are risks to this scenario, particularly the recent events of a geopolitical nature. In addition, the still pending adjustment to economic agents’ balance sheets could eventually imply a brake on growth in the medium term in some developed economies with high levels of debt.

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