Global | Economic environment: good in 2023, less so in 2024

Summary

The recent resilience of activity does not imply that the economic scenario for next year will be any better. In fact, it will most likely complicate the outlook for 2024.

Key points

• Key points:
• Global economic activity is moderating, but at a more gradual pace than expected, even too gradual even too gradual for central banks, which continue to focus on reducing inflationary pressures.
• The relative dynamism of the global economy is taking place in a context of dissipating supply shocks caused by the pandemic and the outbreak of war in Ukraine on the one hand, and strong demand on the other.
• The relative robustness of economic activity will mean that central banks will have to keep interest rates at restrictive levels for an extended period, which worsens growth expectations for next year.
• After growing 3.4% in 2022, global GDP is forecast to increase 2.9% in 2023 (higher than previously expected) and 2.9% in 2024 (slightly below the previous forecast).

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