Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. November 14, 2023

Summary

Israe's Gaza offensive persists with over 11,000 deaths since October, according to Gaza's Health Ministry. Humanitarian pauses, led by Qatar and Egypt, facilitated hostage talks. The Western response remains varied amid the complex international dynamics.

Key points

• Key points:
• The U.S. continues to make efforts to contain the conflict but shifts its focus to the upcoming bilateral summit with China on Wednesday.
• Geopolitical & Conflict sentiment remain at “Extreme Risk” in the Middle East, while sentiment is returning to Normal in some EU Countries (Germany, Italy & Turkiye).
• Political Indexes sentiment remains at high risk levels in the Middle East, but eased in some European countries too (UK).
• Protest Indexes need to be monitored in the Middle East (Egypt, Israel and S. Arabia) and some Western countries (UK, Germany and Türkiye). Spain jumped to extreme risk given local issues.
• The Economic Policy Uncertainty remains resilient since the beginning of the Conflict somehow helped by recent Central Bank decisions and the displacement of economic news is supporting.

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