Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. May 21, 2024

Summary

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israel and Hamas Leaders. The Iranian President and Foreign Ministry died in Helicopter crash.

Key points

• Key points:
• The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior Hamas leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh, over alleged war crimes. This action sparked strong reactions from Israel and criticism from US President Biden.
• Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash. He was considered a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian Red Crescent reported no survivors found at the crash site. Analysts are now questioning the future of Iran-US relations under new leadership.
• Protests against the war in Israel remain intense, keeping the risk indicator high, while demonstrations in the US and Europe have eased.
• Political tensions in Taiwan increased as President Lai Ching-te was sworn in, raising the risk indicator, whereas Spain saw a decrease in political tension, moving to a neutral risk level.
• Geopolitical and conflict indicators remain high in the Middle East, although social unrest and conflict indicators have decreased in several countries compared to the previous week.

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