Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. March 12, 2024

Summary

Israel probes an airstrike in Gaza for possibly killing Hamas's deputy military leader amidst ongoing conflict, with Ramadan approaching. The US presidential race heats up as Nikki Haley exits the Republican race and Dean Phillips leaves the Democrats.

Key points

• Key points:
• The UN Secretary-General seeks a truce and significant aid for Gaza, while the EU plans a maritime aid corridor to address the humanitarian crisis. Despite Biden's warning, labeling an invasion of Rafah as a "red line," Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu plans to proceed with the operation.
• The US presidential race is heating up with Nikki Haley exiting the Republican field and Dean Phillips leaving the Democrat side. President Biden has proposed a $7.3 billion budget focusing on social programs funded by increased taxes on the wealthy and corporations.
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Donald Trump promised to halt all U.S. funding for Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine conflict if he wins the upcoming election, based on their discussion at Mar-a-Lago, Florida.
• The Middle East remains a high-risk area geopolitically. Europe is showing potential signs of increased risk, although Turkey and France are improving. In Latin America, geopolitical risk remains high, except for Mexico, which is categorized as neutral.

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