Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. January 9, 2024

Summary

Israel changes strategy against Hamas, shifting focus from northern to central and southern Gaza. Airstrikes target Hezbollah leaders in southern Lebanon. Netanyahu vows to continue war until Hamas is eliminated and hostages are freed.

Key points

• Key points:
• UNRWA struggles to provide aid in Gaza, nearing a humanitarian crisis and warning of a humanitarian collapse. UNIFIL reports heavy fire exchanges along the Lebanon-Israel Blue Line, escalating conflict risks.
• US Secretary of State Blinken and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Borrell caution against war escalating regionally. They stress deescalation, hostage release, and increased humanitarian aid. Borrell underlines the need to prevent Lebanon's involvement and voices concerns about escalating fire exchanges.
• Hezbollah and Houthi militants are stepping up attacks, indicating a wider regional turmoil. Shipping costs from China to Europe and the US have surged, with the Freightos Baltic Index for the China-Europe route more than doubling in the final week of December.
• Middle East indexes face increased risk pressures, while Western countries stabilize at neutral levels. In Emerging Countries, Argentinian indexes, particularly Economic Policy Uncertainty and Protest, weaken following government announcements of new measures.

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