Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. April 16, 2024

Iran launched a drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13, retaliating against Israel's airstrike on its consulate in Damascus. Israel's cabinet discussed response options, while US President Biden urged caution and a united diplomatic front. The situation remains complex with potential for strategic errors.

Key points

• Key points:
• Over the past week, there has been a significant international response to the tensions between Iran and Israel. The U.S. assisted Israel's aerial defense systems anticipating a response from Iran. The European Union strongly condemned Iran's attacks on Israel, describing them as a major escalation and a threat to regional security. The EU emphasized its support for Israel's security and called for restraint from all parties involved to avoid further escalation.
• Mexico announced plans to bring a case against Ecuador at the International Court of Justice following the arrest of Glas, which led Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to sever diplomatic ties with Ecuador, denouncing the arrest as a severe violation of Mexico's sovereignty.
• Geopolitical and conflict risks have spiked in the Middle East, particularly after an attack that heightened uncertainty in the region. This is reflected in significant increases in risk indices for Saudi Arabia and the U.S., while Israel continues discussions on how to respond.
• The attack escalated geopolitical and political risks in Europe, particularly in the UK, Germany, and France, while in Russia and Ukraine the conflict indices remain in the high-risk area.
• In Latin America, geopolitical risks rose in Argentina and somewhat in Mexico, whereas they decreased in Brazil and Ecuador, nearing a neutral level.

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