Global | 2025, a year of restructuring for the oil market

Summary

The average price for 2024 has been very close to $80 per barrel of Brent, although with a downward trend throughout the year, largely due to more subdued economic activity in China and the gradual increase in supply from the main producers in the Americas.

Key points

• Key points:
• On the demand side, it will be a year of quieter growth among the major oil-consuming economies: The United States will grow by 2.0% (2.7% in 2024), China by 4.1% (4.8% in 2024) and the Eurozone by 1.0% (0.8% in 2024).
• Supply will continue to expand, supported by growth from the countries of the Americas, albeit with some uncertainty in the case of the United States due to the downward effect on shale supply from lower prices.
• However, a few months back OPEC+ announced the start of a normalization of its production, which has been postponed and diluted to avoid too heavy a reaction in terms of prices.
• The price of oil will continue to trend downward, with an expected average for 2025 of $73 per barrel Brent and a gradual transition to the long-term equilibrium price of around $70 a barrel between 2026 and 2027.
• Uncertainty will remain high, due to doubts over how policy decisions will play out within the sector in the United States, coupled with OPEC+ decisions, current geopolitical tensions and the effectiveness of the countercyclical measures rolled out in China.

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