Colombia | The day after: Insights from Colombia’s Q3 2024 GDP results

Summary

Colombia's economy advanced in Q3 2024, with investment outpacing GDP and service exports reaching record highs. Private consumption showed a mixed dynamic, while public consumption detracted from growth. The GDP growth projection for 2024 remains at 2.0%.

Key points

• Key points:
• Investment was the key driver this quarter, outpacing GDP for the second consecutive period. Civil works and machinery led growth, while housing remained weak, affecting sectors like manufacturing and mining.
• Service exports excelled with 13.3% growth in the quarter and 22.7% year-to-date, accounting for 18% of total exports. This record highlights their increasing role in diversifying Colombia's foreign trade.
• Private consumption showed contrasts: durable goods, supported by lower financial costs, led the recovery, while services like tourism and restaurants moderated. Meanwhile, public consumption declined significantly, detracting from growth.
• Primary sectors, such as agriculture and fishing (+10.7%), led growth, while manufacturing (-1.3%) and mining (-7.1%) showed persistent declines. Artistic and entertainment services (+14.1%) stood out among tertiary activities.
• Recent indicators, including freight transport and household confidence, suggest improvements in October. Industry, with low inventories, needs to increase activity and production to meet rising demand, reinforcing the expectation of reaching 2.0% GDP growth in 2024 and a gradual acceleration in 2025.

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