Colombia | Real Estate Outlook. 2025

Summary

BBVA Research presents its new real estate sector report in two presentations: the first analyzes sales, supply, prices, rentals, and demographics; the second focuses on the structure of construction, financing, and sustainability. It includes sales projections, drivers, and trends through 2026.

Key points

• Key points:
• New housing sales began showing signs of recovery at the end of 2024, especially in the No VIS segment, while VIS housing remains lagging. The stock of unsold completed homes increased, and the decline in new project launches will limit future supply. Construction represents 4.3% of GDP and generates 1.55 million jobs.
• Renting has surpassed ownership as the main form of housing tenure in Colombia (7.3 million renting households versus 7.1 million owners). The limited supply of new housing, combined with this trend, has pushed up rental prices, reduced the time needed to sell and lease used properties, and is strengthening investment in rental housing.
• Financing and sustainability are key pillars of the market. Mortgage lending remains central; housing leasing has recently declined; the average loan term has increased; and loans with subsidies have decreased. Meanwhile, nearly 300,000 new homes have received sustainability certifications, and by 2030, half of new housing is expected to meet environmental standards.
• Although lower interest rates, GDP growth, and job creation will boost the real estate market, risks persist, including scarcity of urbanizable land, uncertainty over national subsidies, and rising construction input costs. New housing sales are projected to grow 9.0% in 2025 and 11.5% in 2026, with stronger performance in the No VIS segment.
• The average monthly income per person in Colombia is 1.1 million pesos, and households average 2.9 people. The country faces a housing deficit that is more qualitative than quantitative. Moreover, population aging will reshape the future structure of housing demand.

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