Colombia | Inflation hasn't reached its peak yet, October annual variation was 12.2%

Summary

Monthly inflation in October was 0.72% and annual inflation was 12.22%, close to market analysts' expectations of 0.62%, according to Banco de la República's survey, and BBVA Research's of 0.64%. The data increased 78 bps from September's annual figure.

Key points

• Key points:
• Food inflation reached 27.0% in annual variation, however, increases are being led by processed products, while perishable products are starting to moderate.
• Non-food inflation accelerated by 83 bps from the previous month in annual terms, reaching 9.15% in October. In annual terms, the non-food sub-baskets (goods, services and regulated) showed higher accelerations than the food basket.
• The largest acceleration is due to the increase in prices of the sub-basket of goods such as vehicles and personal care products, household cleaning products and alcoholic beverages.
• The second largest acceleration is in the services sub-basket, where car insurance, air travel and package tours stand out.
• BBVA Research expects inflation to continue to rise to close the year at 12.5%. In 2023, food inflation is expected to ease during the first part of the year. Finally, the moderation of total inflation will be accentuated towards the second half of the year.

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