Colombia | Inflation continues to surprise, in November it reached 12.53%

Summary

Monthly inflation in November rose to 0.77% and annual inflation to 12.53%, up 31 bps from October's annual figure. The results were again above the median of market analysts' expectations of 12.27% and what we expected at BBVA Research (12.42%).

Key points

• Key points:
• The food basket surprised the market again, with a monthly inflation of 1.5%, reaching an annual change of 27.1%, accelerating 5 bps from the previous month's figure.
• As expected, inflation in the perishables and meat sub-auctions started to decelerate in the annual comparison, while processed goods inflation accelerated by 103 bps.
• Non-food inflation reached an annual change of 9.48%, within this, goods recorded the highest acceleration, with pressures continuing to be associated with vehicles and personal care products.
• Within services, the largest contributions came from meals at table-service and away-from-home establishments, as well as rentals and package tours.
• We expect inflation to end the year close to 12.5%, even with continued pressures on food inflation this year. Total inflation will start to ease slowly in the first half of 2023, but it will do so more strongly in the second half of that year.

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