Colombia | Inflation continues its downward trend in November, reaching 10.15%

Summary

In November, monthly inflation was 0.47% and annual inflation was 10.15%, in line with market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey. Thus, the figure decreased by 33 basis points compared to the previous month's figure.

Key points

• Key points:
• Food inflation continued to decrease in November, going from 10.4% to 8.3%. This result was mainly explained by the decrease in the perishables basket, which fell in the annual comparison by 556 basis points compared to the previous month's figure, to 9.5%. The meat and processed food baskets also decreased in annual terms.
• In non-food inflation, the figure increased from 10.5% to 10.6%. This result is explained, on the one hand, by the increase in the inflation of the administered prices basket, which went from 15.2% to 16.9%, driven by increases in fuel prices, electricity rates and urban transportation.
• On the other hand, inflation of the services basket, the one with the highest weight within the consumer basket, remained very close to its figure of the previous month, with an annual variation of 9%. However, its monthly variation remains at levels similar to those of 2022, suggesting the existence of pressures from this basket.
• At BBVA Research, we expect inflation to continue to moderate. In 2024 we will see opposite effects during the first part of the year, with important base effects at the beginning of the year that will counterbalance indexation pressures, as well as the effects of the El Niño phenomenon. Thus, we expect inflation to close 2024 at 5.4%.

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